Ya I know, it’s been a while since you’ve read some fresh political jive. I’ve been busy — deal with it.
BUT, I’m back with updated campaign numbers!
First, the most-recent Breakdown:
So far, there have been a total of 29,568,557 Republican voters and 27,599,944 Democratic voters.
So far, 17.8% of Americans have voted (total Americans, not just registered).
Donald Trump has 12,881,083 votes while Clinton has 15,055,251 votes.
Also, if you want a copy of my data, just ask.
What’s going on!?
Clinton locked it down! Trump has also … locked it down? Yes. He has.
As you can see, even with a powerful competitor, Clinton still has around 3 million more votes than Trump. And this is only the primaries … this should be a concern for Republicans.
Trump is obviously going to try and rope in as many Bernie supporters as possible … because, let’s face it, I’m not sure who else he can appeal to. So he’s going to try and appeal to the it’s-all-rigged-against-the-little-guy crowd. I’m not 100% sure that he can win a general election with working-class white guys alone, so he’s going to need some other groups … but he’s pretty much made it clear he wants the white vote. Among other issues with Trump include: poor campaign infrastructure, advisor infighting, a bare-bones staff (no communications team), he doesn’t seem interested in using data or analytics, and all of this is clear with how he handles bad press. He seems to surround himself with yes people, and still considers himself advisor-in-chief to … himself. When the Trump University stuff came out, all he did was tweet. Again. No statement, no rebuttal, no official message of any kind. The same thing happened when Clinton had her big foreign policy speech. Same thing with all his racist comments (the judge thing). Overall, he has a LOT of work to do to catch up to Clinton.
As for Clinton … ehhh. She probably needs to work on her overall delivery package, and hope her investigation isn’t anything big. As of now, it’s no big deal. But any whiff of something negative and Fox News will dump 45 negative ads on her front door, and everyone teetering towards Clinton with second-guess themselves. The choice could be: Trump, who swindled people at Trump University, or Clinton, who doesn’t listen to best-practice policies. Also, she seems disgenuine and opts for sheer practicality over human emotion. The two candidates couldn’t be further apart: Trump uses nothing but impulse and emotion while Clinton is a clear pragmatist and very firmly rooted in reality (not to mention a lot of people think she’s the queen of the lizard people). She should probably work on crafting better message delivery, make it more cohesive, and try to touch on the imagination of what “could” be. Basically she needs to add more of a human touch to her rather sterile and cliche campaign.
Regardless of what happens, there are plenty of people out there with their mind made up for November already, and I tried to model those people in a presidential prediction model. I may periodically update the model to see the results, but as of now, I’ll stand by it. I also want to reappraise my prior assessments on Trump, Bernie, and also Hillary. I’ll still stand by them, and I think my Bernie prediction will hold up (that he will essentially become the de facto martyr for Socialism in the United States).
And soon it begins. The ads, propaganda stories (well, more of them anyway), donor solicitations, debates, town hall meetings, and overall chaos. God help you if you live in a battleground state. Something tells me this election is going to be like nothing ever before seen in American history. It’s going to be expensive, brutal, and will decide the fate of the country for the next generation — because the real objective in the next presidency will be to pick a new Justice.
Brace yourselves. It’s going to be ridiculous.