Monthly Archives: May 2016

CAMPAIGN ANALYSIS: So, I mathematically calculated how a Clinton/Trump election might go …

Trump-clinton

Wellllll ….. I manually calculated what an election day might look like. It’s pretty easy to understand, I think, but there’s quite a bit of steps involved. SOoooo, if you’re not one to read through the work, I’ll just tell you, here are the results:

Hillary takes it 60-40.

But, if you actually want to understand how I arrived at that conclusion, what groups are missing from my model, and what part is a guesstimate, then you really should read through the work … and give feedback!! Also, you can mess with the numbers and see who might win, and what it would take.


FIRSTLY …

— The most-recent population of the United States is 321,442,019.

—> As of 2014, 24% of the population is under 18, and hence ineligible to vote. This makes the voting population 244,295,934.

  • In 2008, 131,313,820 votes were cast in the general election (58.23% of the voting public)
  • In 2012, 139,085,403 votes were cast in the general election (54.87% of the voting public)

This assessment assumes that 60% of the voting public will cast a vote.

  • Here is why I think it will be higher than past cycles: The presence of Trump. And I get a grand total of 146,577,560 votes cast. It may be less because of felons (because some can’t vote), but overall, that’s my assumption. around 150 million vote, which would be a really good turnout … hence …

Assumption 1: There will be 146,577,560 votes.

As of 2014, the demographics of the United States are as follows: 77.4% white, 13.2% black, and 17.4% Hispanic. This actually mean’s that it’s 108% of the population … which is weird. BTW: all these numbers come from the census, so I’ll go with it.

ANYWAY …

Assumption 2: This article will assume those exact demographics for each racial group. So, I assume that 77.4% of voting women will be white, 13.2% of voting women will be black, etc … And the same for males.

As of 2014, 29.3% of the population had bachelor’s degrees or higher, while 86.3% have high school or lower education. hence …

Assumption 3: This article assumes that for each voting demographic (white, black, Hispanic), 29.3% have bachelor’s degrees or higher, and 86.3% will have high school or lower. This will be the same for both genders.

******* This actually adds up to 115.6% rather than 100%, which is weird, because all my numbers come from the US census. But, to correct this, I’ll proportionally reduce votes at the end (explained in depth at the end).*******

And here are my numbers in a hypothetical Trump/Hillary match-up … ladies first:

74,461,400 women vote in this scenario (50.8% of the voting population).

White women voting: 57,633,124

  • Of this, 16,886,505 white voting women have bachelor’s-level education or higher. This analysis assumes that 95% of this category will vote for Hillary, which gives her 16,042,180 votes. This leaves Trump with 844,325 votes in this category (5%).
  • Of white women voting, 49,737,386 have high-school level education or lower. This analysis assumes that 65% of this category will vote for Hillary, which gives her 32,329,300 votes. This leaves Trump with 17,408,085 votes in this category (35%).

Black women voting: 9,828,905

  • Of this, 2,879,869 black voting women have bachelor’s-level education or higher. This analysis assumes that 97% of this category will vote for Hillary, which gives her 2,793,473 votes. This leaves Trump with 86,396 votes (3%).
  • Of black women voting, 8,482,345 have high-school education or lower. This analysis assumes that 85% of this category will vote for Hillary, which gives her 7,209,993 votes. This leaves Trump with 1,272,352 votes (15%)

Hispanic women voting: 12,956,284

  • Of this, 2,938,251 Hispanic voting women have bachelor’s-level education or higher. This analysis assumes that 97% of this category will vote for Hillary, which gives her 2,850,104 votes. This leaves Trump with 85,503 votes (3%).
  • Of Hispanic voting women, 11,181,273 have high-school education or lower. This analysis assumes that 85% of this category will vote for Hillary, which gives her 9,504,082 votes. This leaves Trump with 1,677,190 votes (15%).

After running these numbers, here are the results from this hypothetical race (for the female vote):

  • Hillary: 70,729,132 female votes
  • Trump: 21,373,851 female votes

However, this leaves us with an issue: If 86.3% of women are high-school educated or lower, and 29.3% are bachelor’s-degreed or higher, that leaves us with 115.6% — which is a problem (explained above).

In this model, there are 92,102,983 female voters, but I assume there are 74,461,400 voters (up top). So, I need to fix this. I have 17,641,583 extra votes.

So, as of now, Trump has 30% of the vote, while Hillary has 70%. So, to fix my problem, I’ll subtract 30% of the 17.6 million from Trump, and 70% of the 17.6 million from Hillary.

AND FINALLY, the results:

  • Hillary: 58,380,024 votes
  • Trump: 16,081,376 votes

After all things considered, this leaves us with 74,461,400 female votes!


Now, ON TO THE MALE VOTE:

If 49.2% of the voters are males, this leaves us with 72,116,159 votes.

And now, the same calculation methods for white, black, and Hispanic voters:

White males voting: 55,817,907

  • Of this, 16,354,647 white voting males have bachelor’s-level education or higher. This analysis assumes that 85% of this category will vote for Hillary, which gives her 13,901,450 votes. This leaves Trump with 2,453,197 votes in this category (15%).
  • Of white males voting, 48,170,854 have high-school level education or lower. This analysis assumes that 13% of this category will vote for Hillary, which gives her 6,262,210 votes. This leaves Trump with 41,908,643 votes in this category (87%).

Black males voting: 9,519,333

  • Of this, 2,789,165 black voting men have bachelor’s-level education or higher. This analysis assumes that 94% of this category will vote for Hillary, which gives her 2,621,815 votes. This leaves Trump with 167,349 votes (6%).
  • Of black men voting, 8,215,184 have high-school education or lower. This analysis assumes that 85% of this category will vote for Hillary, which gives her 6,982,907 votes. This leaves Trump with 1,232,277 votes (15%)

Hispanic males voting: 12,548,212

  • Of this, 3,676,626 Hispanic voting men have bachelor’s-level education or higher. This analysis assumes that 97% of this category will vote for Hillary, which gives her 3,566,327 votes. This leaves Trump with 110,299 votes (3%).
  • Of Hispanic voting men, 10,829,107 have high-school education or lower. This analysis assumes that 90% of this category will vote for Hillary, which gives her 9,746,196 votes. This leaves Trump with 1,082,910 votes (10%).

After running these numbers, here are the results from this hypothetical race (for the female vote):

  • Hillary: 43,080,840 male votes
  • Trump: 46,954,675 male votes

However, this leaves us with the same 15.6%-over issue we had with the women. This means that Trump has 52% of the male votes, while Hillary gets 48%. Originally I said that there were 72,116,159 male voters, and I came out with 90,035,515 voters, which is 17,919,356 more votes than needed. Thus, I’ll subtract 52% of the 17 million from Trump, and 48% from Hillary.

 AND FINALLY, the results:

  • Hillary: 34,479,549 male votes
  • Trump: 37,636,610 male votes

After all things considered, this leaves us with 72,116,159 male votes!

 


… and in this hypothetical match-up, HERE ARE THE RESULTS:

Hillary: 92,859,573 TOTAL votes

Trump: 53,717,986 TOTAL votes

— In the model I just presented, Hillary gets 58% of the vote while Trump claims 42%.


******However, keep in mind:

  • I didn’t include any other groups other than black, white, and Hispanic educated and high-school or less educated.
  • There is a margin of error, always. Assume these numbers can shift positive or negative 10% … it’s possible.
  • The general turnout could be much lower or higher than presented here.
  • This is meant to be a guide as to how you can think about the election

Well … man, I think that’s about it. OUT!