CAMPAIGN ANALYSIS: The empirical reality of the Trump phenomena, and other updates

vote

Howdy there, political partners:

I wanted to give you more empirical data to think about with regards to this (completely ridiculous) primary season. I count actual votes — the delegate thing is, ya know, whatever.

So, check out the latest numbers:


 

But first, a note on the Trump phenomena:

Trump likes to play up his popularity, his image, his stature, and brag about how many people follow him. I would like to dispel that myth right now.

Well, I looked up the most-recent numbers for the population of the United States, and it’s at 321,442,019 people. Trump has 7,099,104 votes thus far.

Per my calculations, Trump supporters amount to 2.2% of the United States thus far.

— However, 37% of the VOTING Republican Party thus far follow him.

So, it’s not that Americans follow Donald Trump, it’s that a portion of the VOTING conservative side of the United States follows him.

And also, if it comes down to a Hillary/Trump showdown, look at these numbers:
— Trump currently has 7,099,140 votes.

— Even though Democratic turnout is lower so far, Hillary has received 8,896,418 votes. That’s almost 2M more votes than Trump.

To those of you who think Trump would win the presidency: I would say that is improbable. If it comes down to Hillary/Trump, that would mean Trump would have to capture some serious votes.

I mean really, Rubio and Bernie supporters would most likely vote for Hillary. And do you really think a majority of Cruz supporters would vote Trump? And I’ll mention in passing all the younger millennials who don’t necessarily vote during party-sanctioned primaries, but they do during the actual election (which is part of the reason Obama retained power in 2012).

… While the Trump phenomena exists, it’s a bit overstated (but not for the Republican Party, that party has serious problems now).


But, now the numbers on the Republican side:

Per my latest numbers, here’s the breakdown:

— 19,204,090 Republican voters have cast their votes (although not ALL localities have counted, but it’s safe to say this is pretty close to the number).

— Of these 19M+ voters, 7,099,140 voted Trump, and 5,228,175 voted Cruz.
— This means that, per these figures, Trump owns 37% of the Republican vote, and Cruz owns 27%. This changed slightly from Super Tuesday’s voting, but largely the gap is consistent.

— Per the delegate system, Trump has 738, and Cruz has 463.

— While Republicans are certainly turning out for the polls, I am still of the opinion that most of that gap is largely because of Trump supporters.


Democrats (the less exciting race):

— There have thus far been 14,043,104 Democratic voters. So, for those of you who watch the numbers closely, that’s about 5.1M more Republican voters than Democrat. Thus Republican turnout is quite a bit higher so far.

— Hillary is ahead. That’s all we really need to know for now — unless the race tightens somewhere along the way (which it could when we start hitting the more urban, traditionally liberal states).

— Also, a total of 10.3% of the population has voted thus far. Again, this is a small number, but larger than most elections because of the Trump phenomena.


 

And finally, can someone help here? I have a question:

What happens to Rubio’s delegates? And Kasich if he folds? And all the other random delegates floating around? I’m not familiar with the Party rules. Do these delegates simply disappear? So, there’s that complication.

But, overall this race is pretty ridiculous, but not as ridiculous as people think it is. While Trump appears to be plowing through American politics, a closer look reveals he isn’t as “yuge” as he thinks he is.

But, by all means, take these numbers and make sense of them however you will.

Cheers.

 

 

 

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